Here are some interesting results from the 2004 election by Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University.   While this slide show is very enlightening, it is also disturbing at how effective the Republican proganda machine is at changing the debate to issues that favor their agenda.   This was originally posted on the
EDM website.

God, Guns and Gays: Testing the Conventional Wisdom About the 2004 Election
As the conventional wisdom settles in about the 2004 election, it is, as always, subject to challenge in many important ways.

Alan Abramowitz does some important spadework on this conventional wisdom in his slide show, "God, Guns and Gays: Testing the Conventional Wisdom About the 2004 Election". I think you'll enjoy it and find it a source of much useful (and some surprising) data.

Posted by Ruy Teixeira at 06:37 PM | link | Comments (0)
 

This is from an AP article about the Colorado
Senate campaign:

The cowboy hat-wearing Colorado attorney general went on to beat GOP beer executive Pete Coors to win Colorado's open Senate seat last week. And his older brother, John, picked up another open seat, this one in Congress.

In a year when Republicans strengthened their grip on Congress and Bush decisively won a second term, the Salazar brothers offer a blueprint for Democrats desperate to make inroads in the nation's midsection.

The two got elected in a Republican-leaning state by playing up traditional values, faith and rural heritage while hammering home a populist message that included bashing tax cuts for the rich. Getting a boost from fellow Hispanics didn't hurt, either.

"It's a pioneering election which bodes well for the Democratic Party, the Hispanic community," said New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, a Democrat often mentioned as a possible presidential candidate.

This is an example of the positive message that
will win elections in the battleground midwestern
and western states.   Our focus should be on testing out a new message as a party on confirmation hearings and other legislative issues.  

This exchange of ideas is good for the effort to rebuild a majority, and we are close.  However remember that trolls read these posts.  We must develop another venue for more detailed strategy discussions

While I still believe the progressive movement in the U.S. needs to fine tune it's message, I cannot escape the thought of how Rove & Co. managed to use cognitive dissonance to their advantage.   They used this psychological tool in the face of 55% of Americans thinking the country is on the wrong track, to change the thinking from economic and foreign policy to moral values as the major problem.  We need to study and employ this strategy to pry some rural voters away from this issue back to the economic roots.

There have been many thoughts posted on various
websites on the keys to rebuilding a majority, most of them very good.

The first issue to consider is where we are currently.  We have made great strides in the partisan indices, newly active volunteers,internet activity, and progressive institutions.  The infrastructure is in place and we must continute to build on that infrastructure by coordingating communications between weblinks.  We must also work to get more media attention and speakers on talk shows.  Working toward controlling the debate is important, and we will have four years to fine tune the message.

The second issue to consider is working on  building the base, and the most likely tool is keeping new activists involved recruiting others to particpate in the internet debate.  Ideas for the message we present should come from these
discussions.   The achilles heel of the Democratic Party has been that it is a top down
driven organization.  A long list of special interest groups communicate with officials in Washington and then they respond with positions that support these causes.  The party has been driven by elitist for far too long.  To be a player at the table you had to graduate from Harvard, Yale or Princeton.  The table has to be opened up to allow players that graduated from public institutions around the country to participate in the debate. Involving folks with experience in linguistics to develop the key phrases will be important.  There was an excellent article on this subject in the American Prospect late last year. If this happens, we develop a message that plays in rural areas as well as urban.

Next, we have to identify the states to concentrate our efforts over the next four years. The evidence points toward Virgina, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Florida.  Others may come along but we have to limit the targets to maximize our efforts.  

Finally, foreign policy will become an albatross around this adminstrations neck.  Iraq is a 500 pound guerilla that is about to spin out of control, and could destabalize other countries in the area.  The idea of changing course will not even be considered by the administration. With the right message National Security and Foreign Policy will become our issue.